Ukraine

[Vancouver]

Have y'all seen how far away he keeps from visitors. Claims it's Covid awareness, more like Assassination awareness.

[Paul K]

This is from the New York Times, and very interesting. Are Russian soldiers surrendering in large numbers, and sabotaging their own vehicles in order to avoid combat ? I hope there is something to it, and not merely wishful thinking.

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WASHINGTON — Plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages, some Russian troops in Ukraine have surrendered en masse or sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting, a senior Pentagon official said on Tuesday.

Some entire Russian units have laid down their arms without a fight after confronting a surprisingly stiff Ukrainian defense, the official said. A significant number of the Russian troops are young conscripts who are poorly trained and ill-prepared for the all-out assault. And in some cases, Russian troops have deliberately punched holes in their vehicles’ gas tanks, presumably to avoid combat, the official said.

The Pentagon official declined to say how the military made these assessments — presumably a mosaic of intelligence including statements from captured Russian soldiers and communications intercepts — or how widespread these setbacks may be across the sprawling battlefield. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational developments.

But taken together, these factors may help explain why Russian forces, including an ominous 40-mile convoy of tanks and armored vehicles near Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, have come to a near crawl in the past day or two, U.S. officials said.

Besides dealing with shortages of fuel, food and spare parts, the Pentagon official said, Russian commanders leading that armored column toward Kyiv may also be “regrouping and rethinking” their battle plans, making adjustments on the fly to gain momentum for what U.S. intelligence and military officials say is an inevitable push in the next several days to encircle and ultimately capture the capital.

“They have a lot of power available to them,” said the Pentagon official, adding that 80 percent of the more than 150,000 Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s borders have now joined the fight.

But U.S. analysts have been struck by the “risk-averse behavior” of such a large force, the Pentagon official said. Russia launched an amphibious landing to seize Mariupol, a pivotal port city on the Sea of Azov, but landed forces around 40 miles from the city. That allowed the Russians extra time and space to mount an invasion, but also gave the city’s defenders time to prepare.

Russia’s vaunted air force has yet to gain air superiority over Ukraine, with Russian warplanes thwarted by Ukrainian fighter jets and a surprisingly resilient and potent array of air defenses, from shoulder-fired Stinger antiaircraft missiles to much larger surface-to-air weapons, the Pentagon official said.

For Russian forces coming out of Belarus, logistics problems have proved stubborn, a European official said on Tuesday.

Ahead of the invasion, U.S. and British intelligence had raised questions about the supply chain for the Russian troops in Belarus. During military exercises there, some of the soldiers were getting inadequate supplies of food and fuel, according to independent analysts. But American officials told allies that the Russians had fixed those problems by mid-February, which was one reason that American warnings about the invasion intensified in the middle of last month, according to the European official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational developments.

[FlyTexas]

Thanks for sharing this, Paul. Definitely interesting reading.

Brian

[TSR2]

Interesting read Paul. I think the situation is very fluid and as such it’s becoming increasingly difficult for the Ukrainians to defend themselves. Further the various pieces of equipment that are being supplied through Poland require some degree of training to use properly, and without professional military operators will be of limited use. I really hope that we have clandestine operators within Ukraine who are able to assist the Ukrainians, but now I fear without direct intervention, Ukraine will fall. The people will then be left to fight a prolonged guerrilla war, which by its nature will be a bloody mess, with more and more civilians caught up. While I understand the reluctance of the west to intervene, having weapons and army’s and airforces is clearly a complete waste if no one is prepared to use them. People like Vlad know that the west won’t use them, and as such, he can do what he likes with impunity. For all the trillions of dollars spent on defence, Putin is able to send a 17-32 mile long convoy of military through Ukraine. Nobody would do this as it is strategic suicide in a combat environment, unless you know there is no opposition. He is taunting NATO by doing this, as they know it would be the easiest target you could possibly take out. Do we sacrifice Ukraine to possibly stop other conflicts? Does that embolden Vlad? Who knows. But the humanitarian catastrophe that is unfolding is very hard to watch, knowing that we could likely stop it in very short order.

[cstorey]

2 interesting things are that the convoy does not seem to be moving. It has been stuck where it is for 2 days. Why ?

Secondly, according to US reports, the Russian AF is conspicuous by its absence ( and having seen the amount of Rivet Joint traffic of both the USAF and the RAF one presumes they do have the means of knowing) - and I imagine the fact that we can see that traffic is deliberate, so that the Russians know that we know

A third interesting question arises which may or may not be well founded : where is Putin ? Very strange silence for the last 36 hours or so, or have I missed something ? The last we saw of him was with the two "advisers" in uniform, both of whom looked as though they'd just dined on cold sick.....

[Paul K]

Thanks for sharing this, Paul. Definitely interesting reading.

Interesting read Paul.

Cheers chaps. The NYT has a lot of analysis from experts in the US, and I'm reading aspects of Ukraine which don't seem to get much of a mention in UK's media. Different perspectives and priorities maybe. Ben, I hope you don't mind if I paste more of this, as and when. I won't spam the thread with it, of course.

[Nigel H-J]

I have been watching the news in the evening and I just wish something can be done for those Ukrainians who are fighting for their very freedom.

If Putin wins I cannot see those brave Ukrainian fighters ever giving up, they will become Urban Guerrillas so that Russian Forces will never be left in peace.

Regards
Nigel.

[Nigel H-J]

This video out today and these Ukrainians are not armed!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpXLW1-okjE

Regards
Nigel.

[Nigel H-J]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAWUZzkqwGQ

[Nigel H-J]

This sounds good but who would dare do it in Russia then claim the reward?

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... 0_million/

Regards
Nigel.